Thursday, January 19, 2006

Employment Metrics in the News: What factors to select?

To understand the most recent Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Employment Report covering December 2005 , it’s useful to consider which metrics show up in the post publication coverage.

What factors do those most knowledgeable select to make their case? How do they use them? What comparisons do they make or suggest? What time periods?

Of course we find the headline numbers like unemployment percentage appearing in most articles. What you may find somewhat surprising if you sample the coverage (e.g. by using the list compiled by Brad Delong), is how each commentator selects their own favorite factors to tell their story and how different these turn out to be from each other.

Collectively, combining all metrics gives a breadth of coverage that seems to go well beyond any of the individual articles. You will also see a hodge-podge that may make you wonder whether there might not be a better way. We will have more to say about this in future posts. How do the factors listed here compare with the ones used in the coverage that you may have read.

M01 Monthly non farm payroll job growth for the previous month, seasonally adjusted in thousands

M02 The unemployment rate (percentage) for the previous month, seasonally adjusted with two significant digits precision. Also, graphs showing the unemployment rate for the past 3 years, 7 years, and for other time periods

M03 The Employment Population Ratio since 1948 (graph)

M04 The seasonally adjusted percentage of unemployed plus marginally attached plus discouraged works since 1995 (graph).

M05 The seasonally adjusted percentage of those unemployed for 15 weeks or longer since 1995 (graph)

M06 Seasonally adjusted Labor Force Participation Rate

M07 Hours worked per week

M08 Dollars per hour

M09 Dollars per week

M10 Number of jobs created in previous month in Manufacturing

M11 Number of jobs created in previous month in Construction

M12 Percentage marginally attached

M13 Percentage part time for economic reasons

M14 Average unemployment percentage for the full year 2005

M15 Average unemployment percentage for the full year 2004

M16 New unemployment claims for previous month

M17 Lowest number of new unemployment claims in the past 5 years

M18 Number of jobs created in previous month in Retail

M19 Productivity

M20 Number of discouraged workers

M21 Household Survey total jobs created for the month

M22 Payroll survey total number of jobs created for the full year 2005

M23 Household survey total number of jobs created for the full year 2005

M24 Number of jobs created in previous month in Food Services

M25 Number of jobs created in previous month in Professional Services

M26 Number of jobs created in previous month in Business Services

M27 Number of jobs created in previous month in Health Care

M28 Job outsourcing

M29 Percentage of jobs created for the month that were in the Services sector

M30 Percentage of all current jobs that are in the Services sector

M31 Number of jobs created in past year in Health and Education

M32 Number of jobs created in past year in Leisure and Hospitality

M33 Number of jobs created in past year in Trade and Transport

M34 Number of jobs created in past year Finance

M35 Number of jobs created in past year in Local Teaching

M36 The number of people who have dropped out of the workforce

M37 Percentage of “McJobs”

M38 Percentage of “good jobs”

M39 Percentage of full time jobs

M40 Aggregate income growth for all employees

M41 The BLS U-6 unemployment rate

M42 The BLS U-3 unemployment rate

M43 Long term discouraged workers

M44 Number of people with at least one job (household survey)

M45 Total number of payroll jobs created in the month as a result of the "birth/death" rate

M46 Percentage of total payroll jobs created during the month that resulted from "birth/death" calculation.

M47 Gross domestic income (GDI)

M48 Tax revenue from employment

M49 Help wanted advertising index (print + internet)

M50 Monster employment index

M51 Conference Board Help Wanted Index

What other factors did you see?

Which do you think are most important?

What important ones are missing from this list?

What time frame(s) do you like most?

No comments: