Wednesday, January 24, 2007

Combined Listing of Iraq Factors

Here's the combined list of 142 factors we have identified so far based on this series of recent posts. I have left off the links to the various sources. You can find them these links in the previous posts.

Which ones do you think are most vital to pay attention to on a regular, near-real-time basis in order to better understand what's happening on the ground?
How do you rank each on a scale of 1 to 10?
How often do you think each factor must be measured and reported?
Are there any ones you think can be dropped?

From the Brookings Iraq Index Report
  1. Multiple Fatality Bombings – May 03 – Jan 07
  2. Killed and Wounded in Multiple Fatality Bombings – May 03 – Jan 07
  3. Average Weekly Attacks by Time Period – 01 Jan 2004 – 11 Aug 2005
  4. Improvised Explosive Devices (IED’s) Detonated and Disarmed - Jan 2006 –June 2006
  5. US Troops Wounded in Action March - March 2003 – Jan 2007
  6. Iraqi Military and Police Killed Monthly – Apr 03 – Jan 07
  7. Iraqi Deaths from All Violet Causes – Jan 06- Oct 06
  8. Number of Daily Attacks by Insurgents and Militias - June 03 – Nov 06
  9. Enemy-Initiated Attacks Against the Coalition and its Partners May 2003 –Aug 2006
U.S Dept. of State's Iraq Weekly Status Report (30 pages, January 10, 2007).
  1. Crude oil production for the past 10 weeks.
  2. Crude oil export since February 2006
  3. Electricity production compared to electricity demand since January 2004.
  4. The strength of the local Iraqi currency compared to the dollar
GlobalSecurity.org
  1. US Ground troops in Iraq from March 2004 through December 2006
  2. Average daily casualties - Iraqi and Coalition from 01 April 2004 through 12 May 2006
  3. Average weekly attacks by time period 01 April 2004 through 12 May 2006
5 trend graphs drawn from Iraq Coalition Casualties
  1. US Soldiers Killed with moving avg & event timing - March 2003 - December 30, 2006
  2. US Soldiers Wounded with moving avg - Sept 6, 2003 - Dec 29, 2006
  3. IED Fatalities per month - July 2003 - January 2007
  4. Iraqi Police/Military fatalities - January 2005 - December 2006
  5. Iraqi Civilian fatalities - January 2005 - December 2006
Composite Readily Reusable (RR) example based on Tabular data from GlobalSecurity.org
  1. the monthly ratio of wounded to dead
  2. the monthly change in troop level in Iraq
  3. the monthly change in troop level in Iraq as a percent of the previous month's level
  4. the three month trailing moving average of fatalities
  5. the six month trailing moving average of fatalities
  6. the 9 month trailing moving average of fatalities
  7. the monthly total of wounded and dead combined
from Michael O'Hanlon's testimony. 30 factors
  1. US Troops in Iraq (thousands)
  2. Other Foreign Troops in Iraq (thousands)
  3. US Troops Killed
  4. US Troops Killed by IEDs
  5. US Troops Wounded
  6. Iraqi Army/Police Fatalities
  7. Iraqi Civilian Fatalities
  8. Multiple Fatality Bombings (for the month in question)
  9. Estimated Strength of Insurgency
  10. Estimated Strength of Shia Militias
  11. Daily Average of Inter-ethnic Attacks
  12. Estimated Number of Foreign Fighters
  13. Number of Daily Attacks by Insurgents/Militias
  14. Attacks on Oil/Gas Assets
  15. Iraqi Internally Displaced Since April 2003
  16. Iraqi Refugees Since April 2003 (Total)
  17. Iraqi Physicians Murdered or Kidnapped
  18. Iraqi Physicians who have Fled Iraq
  19. Iraqi Security Forces who are Technically Proficient
  20. Iraqi Security Forces who are Politically Dependable
  21. Oil Production (Millions of Barrels/Day prewar 2.5)
  22. Percent of Household Fuel Needs Available
  23. Electricity Production (in megawatts prewar 4000)
  24. Avg Hours/Day of Power Baghdad (prewar 20)
  25. Unemployment Rate (%)
  26. Per Capita GDP (Real Dollars prewar $900)
  27. Number of Trained Judges
  28. Telephone Subscribers (prewar 800000)
  29. Independent Media Companies (prewar 0)
  30. Iraqi Optimism (% who think things going in right direction)
New indicators calculated from combinations of O'Hanlon's metrics
  1. total number of Iraqi Physicians who have murdered, kidnapped, or who have left Iraq.
  2. percent of coalition troops that are not US troops
  3. Percent of US troops killed by IEDs
  4. Year over year increase in Iraqi refugees
Additional factors (missing metrics) contained in the text of O'Hanlon's testimony
  1. Good year/Bad Year (e.g. subjective on scale of 1 to 10)
  2. Sense of Progress (e.g. subjective on scale of 1 to 10)
  3. Al-Maliki Favorability Rating
  4. Al-Maliki Favorability Rating for all Sunni Arabs
  5. Rate of Shia attacks on Sunnis
  6. Rate of Sunni attacks on Shia
  7. Iraqi state subsidies for consumer goods
  8. The number of children being immunized.
  9. Percentage who feel safe en route to school
  10. Rate of private sector investment
  11. Slide toward chaos (e.g. subjective on scale of 1 to 10)
  12. Percent who think Economy is Poor
  13. Percent who think security environment is poor
  14. Rate of Jobs Creation
  15. Degree of Iraqi Leader consensus on sharing oil
  16. American support for the operation
  17. Number of coalition forces needed to provide security.
  18. Degree of Overwork of our Soldiers and Marines
  19. Rate of “Success of military commanders in putting Iraqis to work with their commander emergency response program funds”
  20. Degree of Support Iraqi Leaders enjoy outside their own sectarian group.
  21. Degree to which Iraqi Leaders are working across sectarian lines.
  22. The Probability that a Given Intervention will succeed (e.g the most recent set of changes in strategy and tactics)
  23. Degree of Pessimism
  24. Iraqis displaced per month
  25. Degree of Ethnic Cleansing
55 missing metrics/invisible indicators/faceless factors from Brookings Iraq Index
  1. Percentage of US troop fatalities caused by car bombs (page 3 table)
  2. Iraqi civilians killed by US troops (page 9 table)
  3. Police deaths in Baghdad (page 12 table)
  4. Civilian deaths in Baghdad (page 12 table)
  5. Kellogg, Brown and Root Employees in Iraq (table page 14)
  6. Combat arms troop strength (table page 14)
  7. Combat support troop strength (table page 14)
  8. Combat service support troop strength (table page 14)
  9. Dept of Defense Civilians in Iraq (table page 14)
  10. Total Civilian Personnel in Iraq & Kuwait (table page 14)
  11. Iraqis Kidnapped Nationwide (table page 15)
  12. Iraqis Kidnapped in Baghdad (table page 15)
  13. Iraqi prison population in US Custody (table page 16)
  14. Iraqi prison population in Iraqi Custody (table page 16)
  15. Active duty troop strength in Iraq (table page 20)
  16. Reserve & National Guard troop strength in Iraq (table page 20)
  17. Total US Army authorized strength - Activity duty (table page 20)
  18. Total US Army authorized strength - National Guard (table page 20)
  19. Total US Army authorized strength - Reserve (table page 20)
  20. Total US Army authorized strength - Combined Active, National Guard & Reserve (table page 20)
  21. Percentage of IEDs found and disarmed (table page 23)
  22. Number of daily Iraqi Patrols (chart page 23)
  23. Number of daily US Patrols (chart page 23)
  24. Number of daily Joint Iraqi-US Patrols (chart page 23)
  25. Number of total daily patrols (chart page 23)
  26. New passports issued (table page 24)
  27. Percent of professional class that has left since 2003 (table page 24)
  28. Iraqi refugees heading to Syria per day (table page 24)
  29. Iraqi refugees heading to Jordan per day (table page 24)
  30. US Air Strikes (Iraq only) (table page 26)
  31. C-130 Sorties flown (Iraq and Afghanistan combined) (table page 26)
  32. Diesel production (table page 29)
  33. Kerosene production (table page 29)
  34. Gasoline/Benzene production (table page 29)
  35. LPG production (table page 29)
  36. Non oil related GDP (table page 33)
  37. Total cost of US operations (table page 37)
  38. Cost of US defense activities (table page 37)
  39. Cost of Veteran's programs (table page 37)
  40. Inflation rate (table page 39)
  41. Cost of imported gasoline (table page 39)
  42. Domestic price of gasoline (table page 39)
  43. Relative amount of car traffic (table page 40)
  44. Typical waiting time for gasoline (table page 40)
  45. Number of registered cars (table page 40)
  46. Internet subscribers (table page 41)
  47. Tons of mail sent by Iraqis (table page 41)
  48. People with potable water (table page 42)
  49. People with sewerage system coverage (table page 42)
  50. Water treatment capacity (table page 42)
  51. Annual Iraqi Medical School Graduates (table page 42)
  52. Primary school enrollment percentage (table page 43)
  53. High School enrollment percentage (table page 43)
  54. Percentage of Iraqis who approve of attacks on US led forces (table page 44)
  55. Percentage of Iraqis who strongly oppose presence of Coalition troops (table page 51)
Does reading through this entire list inspire your creativity to identify other missing metrics or other new calculations that might be made by combining this original list?

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