Tuesday, June 12, 2007

UN report on surge progress

Juan Cole reports today in Informed Comment on the UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon's quarterly report on Iraq.

Several things to note:

a) substantial use of important metrics with numeric quantification (see snippets below). There is also a sense that some effort was invested in sorting out which factors and indicators were the important ones relative to humanitarian concerns. Contrast this to the lack of precision or quantification with the 18 benchmarks, the See you in September article, etc.

b) much wide perspective and more holistic view on what's important to pay attention to in Iraq (beyond the 18 benchmarks).

33. ... related to a humanitarian response. For every death reported in the news, six family members on average are left without a breadwinner. The rising number of displaced persons is also a cause for concern. UNHCR estimates that displacement has continued at an undiminished pace and over 800,000 Iraqis have been internally displaced since the Samarra mosque bombing in February 2006, while 30,000 to 50,000 flee to neighbouring countries each month.

34. The violence is also having a major impact on Iraqi children and their ability to attend school. ... estimated that 17 per cent of primary school-age children were not attending school in 2005 and 2006. This translates into approximately 765,000 children, of whom 61 per cent were girls, even before the recent escalation in the numbers of refugees and internally displaced persons. Dropout rates are also increasingly outstripping school participation. Only 34 per cent of girls and 43 per cent of boys of secondary school age were attending secondary school in 2005 and 2006. . .

...

46. ... increased threat of indirect fire into the International Zone. ... The International Zone experienced 17 attacks in March, 30 in April and 39 by 22 May alone. Since 19 February, indirect fire attacks have reportedly resulted in the deaths of 26 people in the International Zone. The security situation has been further compounded by the increase in car bombs in the vicinity of entry checkpoints to the International Zone. Armed groups operating in Baghdad have demonstrated their ability to strike at well-protected, strategic targets, such as the suicide bombing inside the Parliament building on 12 April. . .

...

60. Iraq’s political and social fabric continued to come under considerable strain during the reporting period as a result of ongoing political, sectarian and criminal violence. Despite the efforts of the Iraqi and multinational security forces to stem violence, progress was slower than had been hoped when security initiatives were launched at the start of 2007. This has been demonstrated by continued attacks on the civilian population, physical infrastructure and political institutions such as the Council of Representatives. . .
This is a small step in the right direction in my opinion.

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